The main point is that when they sit down, they will conclude that what we want to do is to continue to remove the accommodative policy,

The economy will grow faster in the first quarter. Consumer spending is recovering.

The huge U.S. trade deficit may finally be stabilizing.

If crude oil prices keep on rising, the chances that consumption is going to be hurt further down the line rises. That means the Fed could be more gradual in raising rates.

That's consistent with the idea that labor market conditions are not really improving yet. They're not getting worse, either, but they've only stabilized.

On balance, recent inflation reports have shown the Fed evidence of pipeline commodity price pressures but with little impact on consumer inflation trends,

The numbers are a little better than we expected,

The numbers are a little better than we expected. Still, these things bounce around, and I think we'll probably see the unemployment figure break 4.5 percent next month.

It's only vaguely predictive of what will happen with month-to-month consumer spending. It did increase dramatically in March, so some drop-back is not unexpected.

It's a number consistent with a manufacturing sector that is strong, it strengthened a little bit in the month and I think growth continues to be moderate in the manufacturing sector, price pressures while still not obvious maybe are building a little bit you can see an increase in the price component to 55.1 that's indicative of some price pressure.